线上线下融合模式下考虑战略顾客行为的供应链协调研究

在移动电商高速发展和移动支付日益便捷的时代，线上线下融合商务模式正日益成为传统零售、电子商务甚至快递物流企业转型升级的重要方向，影响着供应链运营管理及其优化决策。线上线下融合模式下的战略顾客行为不同于传统模式，其对于供应链运营管理及其优化决策的影响也不同于传统模式。基于O2O运作模式特征，运用战略顾客行为理论、供应链优化与协调理论，本文分别构建了"线上下单+线下体验+线下支付+自行提货"O2O模式1、"线上浏览+线下体验+线上购买+线下配送"O2O模式2、纯线下模式和纯线上模式下考虑战略顾客行为的供应链集中决策模型和契约协调模型，并进行了相应的数值分析，在此基础上，提出了相应的管理启示。研究结果表明：（1）无论是"线上下单+线下体验+线下支付+自行提货"O2O模式1还是"线上浏览+线下体验+线上购买+线下配送"O2O模式2，收益分享契约机制可以有效地实现战略顾客行为下的供应链协调。（2）对比两种O2O模式和两种非O2O模式，O2O模式1和O2O模式2能给供应链及其成员带来更多的利润，而纯线上模式和纯线下模式能给战略顾客带来更高的效用。（3）O2O模式下，制定较高的自提补贴和较低的折扣价格，有利于提高供应链及其成员的运营绩效。（4）O2O模式下，增强产品及其相关服务的实际体验效用，有利于提高供应链整体及其成员的运营绩效，有利于提高战略顾客的净效用。     

Tweeting about emergency: A semantic network analysis of government organizations’ social media messaging during Hurricane Harvey

While social media like Twitter have been increasingly adopted by public-sector organizations, it remains less explored as to how government and emergency management (EM) organizations use these platforms to communicate with the public in response to emerging natural disasters. Extending the Situational Crisis Communication Theory (SCCT) to the realm of social media, this study examines the emerging semantic networks from 67 government and EM organizations’ official tweets during Hurricane Harvey over a three-week period. It identifies how multiple crisis response strategies—including instructing information, adjusting information, and bolstering—are constituted of different issues, actions, and organizational actors before, during, and immediately after the disaster event. Results suggest that government agencies use the strategy of instructing information predominantly before and during the disaster, whereas adjusting information and bolstering strategies are utilized more during post-disaster recovery. The study offers theoretical and practical implications of using a semantic network approach to studying organizational crisis responses.     

A discrete-time risk model with Poisson ARCH claim-number process

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a discrete-time risk model with the claim number following an integer-valued autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) process with Poisson deviates. In this model, the current claim number depends on the previous observations. Within this framework, the equation for finding the adjustment coefficient is derived. Numerical studies are also carried out to examine the impact of the Poisson ARCH dependence structure on the ruin probability.     

Exploring the roles of government involvement and institutional environments in the internationalization of Chinese Internet companies

The interactions between government, institutions, and Internet companies have gained attention in the research on the globalization of China’s Internet. However, few studies have been conducted at the company level, and the knowledge about the roles of government and institutions remains limited. Drawing on institutional theory, this empirical study explored the roles and mechanisms of government involvement and the institutional environment in the internationalization of Chinese Internet companies. The results indicated that government involvement could improve these companies’ degree of international breadth through both state ownership and governmental affiliation. However, the results showed that state ownership had a restraining function on their degree of international depth. In the context of institutional transition in China, these effects could vary according to whether Internet companies operate in good or poor institutional environments. By revealing these relationships, this study contributes to both the theoretical and the empirical understanding of governmental influence and institutional roots in the globalization of China’s Internet.     

A surplus process involving a compound Poisson counting process and applications

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a surplus process involving a compound Poisson counting process, which is a generalization of the classical ruin model where the claim-counting process is a homogeneous Poisson process. The incentive is to model batch arrival of claims using a counting process that is based on a compound distribution. This reduces the difficulty of modeling claim amounts and is consistent with industrial data. Recursive formula, some properties and relevant main ruin theory results are provided. Further, we consider applications involving zero-truncated negative binomial and zero-truncated binomial batch arrivals when the claim amounts follow exponential or Erlang distribution.     

Estimation of the additive hazards model with interval-censored data and missing covariates

The additive hazards model is one of the most commonly used regression models in the analysis of failure time data and many methods have been developed for its inference in various situations. However, no established estimation procedure exists when there are covariates with missing values and the observed responses are interval-censored; both types of complications arise in various settings including demographic, epidemiological, financial, medical and sociological studies. To address this deficiency, we propose several inverse probability weight-based and reweighting-based estimation procedures for the situation where covariate values are missing at random. The resulting estimators of regression model parameters are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. The numerical results that we report from a simulation study suggest that the proposed methods work well in practical situations. An application to a childhood cancer survival study is provided. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 499–517; 2020 © 2020 Statistical Society of Canada     

机器学习视角下中国去产能产业的识别

随着中国环境压力的增加,政府提出了供给侧改革,去产能是改革的主要内容,但是由于产业特征的实时演变,需要对政策进行完善。文章运用模糊C均值算法和支持向量机算法分析现阶段需要进行去产能的产业,结果发现在现行去产能政策中大部分行业是需要去产能的,但煤炭开采和洗选业以及铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备制造业已不适合继续去产能,同时将化学原料和化学制品制造业加入去产能行列中。     

信心、货币政策与中国经济波动关系的统计检验

文章基于时变视角,依据行为经济学理论,构建了一个包含企业家信心、投资者信心、利率、货币增长率、经济增长率和通货膨胀率六变量的TVP-VAR模型,研究信心、货币政策与经济波动之间的时变特征。结果表明:企业家信心和投资者信心能够影响利率和货币增长率,即信心可以通过影响货币政策进而作用于宏观经济。货币增长率和利率能够影响投资者信心和企业家信心,进而可以通过信心影响宏观经济。从时变角度看,企业家信心一单位的正向冲击在整个样本区间内均会促进经济的增长;在短期内投资者信心和货币增长率对经济增长具有促进作用,但是在长期内货币增长率的提高会阻碍经济的增长。     

战略科技人才培育路径仿真研究

采用文献综述和探索性因子分析相结合的方法,确定战略科技人才具有学识广、工作专注、品行优、使命感、战略思维5个主要特质。然后基于我国科技人才政策体系,通过问卷调查收集了116份样本数据,采用偏最小二乘法的结构方程建模(PLS-SEM),进行路径仿真,探讨了我国科技人才政策体系对战略科技人才特质的影响机理,共确定了22条培育战略科技人才的路径,在反映出我国科技人才政策体系严峻形势的同时,又为科技人才政策的改进和完善提供了一定理论指导。     

红色文化增进铸牢中华民族共同体意识的多维向度解析

红色文化是中国革命建设征程的历史凝结,补钙壮骨,通今溯源,与中华民族共同体意识有着严密的耦合逻辑。在政治上,红色文化有利于坚定中国共产党的领导,明晰铸牢中华民族共同体意识的政治前提;在经济上,红色文化彰显社会主义市场经济的民族互惠指向,夯实铸牢中华民族共同体意识的经济基础;在文化上,红色文化标注社会主义先进文化建设的中国底色,聚合中华民族共同体建设的文化动力;在社会上,红色文化促进各民族交往交流交融,提升铸牢中华民族共同体意识的社会认知;在生态上,红色文化有助于建立人与自然交响协奏的生命共同体,筑牢中华民族共同家园的生态底线。